{"id":3093,"date":"2026-03-01T01:26:56","date_gmt":"2026-02-28T19:56:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.businessupturn.com\/trade-policy\/?p=3093"},"modified":"2026-03-01T01:28:03","modified_gmt":"2026-02-28T19:58:03","slug":"strategic-partnership-or-strategic-liability-russias-arsenal-in-iran-put-to-the-test","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.businessupturn.com\/trade-policy\/strategic-partnership-or-strategic-liability-russias-arsenal-in-iran-put-to-the-test\/3093\/","title":{"rendered":"Strategic partnership or strategic liability? Russia\u2019s arsenal in Iran on time to the test"},"content":{"rendered":"

The recent combined attack of the United States and Israel<\/a> against Iran<\/a> eventually shows that the decades of military aid given by Russia did not give Tehran a conclusive defense against the advanced Western air power. During the operation, the flaws of systems provided by Moscow were evident, thus redefining the calculus of regional security.<\/p>\n

As of today, the United States and Israel<\/a> are implementing the operation dubbed Roar of the Lion, which is a synchronized strike operation that was launched on 28 February 2026. There are also reports of explosions throughout the central part of Tehran and Iranian officials have threatened to retaliate by crushing them publicly as reported by Reuters<\/a>. This series of strikes has attracted international interest to the degree of military readiness that Iran<\/a> has and specifically the Russian equipment that is incorporated in the Iranian armoury.<\/p>\n

A cursory look back shows that just days before the outburst of hostilities, the Financial Times wrote on 22 February 2026 that Moscow and Tehran had concluded an agreement worth EUR 500 million on the purchase of man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS<\/a>) the Verba<\/a>. According to an analyst of Carnegie Politika, Nikita Smagin, Russia was ready to help Iran in its existing capacity. The legal transfers raise questions within the United Nations<\/a> Charter framework, especially Articles 2(4) and 51. Though the sale of weapons is not a crime, it could involve state culpability in the event that the sale was conducted with the awareness that the weapons were to be used in aggression or in violation of international humanitarian law (IHL). The fact that the Verba<\/a> agreement was reached just before the actual conflict escalated increases examination of the due diligence requirements by the customary international law.<\/p>\n

In the span of 2024 to 2025, Russia was able to increase its military export to Tehran in a systematic manner. At least one squadron of Yak-130 aircraft was provided to Iran in 2024 and transport flights were reported to continue into 2025. In January 2026, as many as six Mil Mi<\/a> 28 helicopters had been delivered to Iran. A large order of 48 Sukhoi Su-35<\/a> aircraft was signed, and the aircraft will be delivered in 2026-2028. As far as ground forces are concerned, dozens of armor vehicles of the Spartak type and Orsis T-5000M<\/a> sniper guns were provided, which, in turn, were said to be used by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps<\/a> (IRGC<\/a>).<\/p>\n

These transfers are legally considered as a sovereign right of the states to participate in defence cooperation. However, according to the Arms Trade Treaty<\/a> (ATT) to which Russia is not a party but the regulations of which are used to guide international practice, the exporting states must evaluate the possibility of abuse. Moreover, the mutual agreements make the legal story hard to understand. According to the Wall Street Journal, Iran had already provided Russia with thousands of Shahed drones<\/a> and ballistic missiles in the war in Ukraine. Such exchanges can involve sanctions regimes and collective security issues by decisions of the United Nations<\/a> Security Council<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Previously, on 6 February in Oman, the Iranian representatives were quoted saying they had offered to ship their stock of highly enriched uranium to a foreign country, perhaps Russia, and suspend their enrichment program up to three years. This diplomatic overture is now seen to be overshadowed by military build up.<\/p>\n

Consequently, as the current conflict situation escalates, it is clear that the gradual military accumulation of Russia in Iran, during a few years, has not only impacted but not changed at all the strategic equilibrium. Their legitimacy is disputed, and their usefulness, as seen in the initial stage of the hostilities, is not very useful against more technologically advanced enemies.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The recent combined attack of the United States and Israel against Iran eventually shows that the decades of military aid\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":441,"featured_media":3095,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[51],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3093","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-russia"],"reading_time":"4 min read","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.businessupturn.com\/trade-policy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3093","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.businessupturn.com\/trade-policy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.businessupturn.com\/trade-policy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.businessupturn.com\/trade-policy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/441"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.businessupturn.com\/trade-policy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3093"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.businessupturn.com\/trade-policy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3093\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3109,"href":"https:\/\/www.businessupturn.com\/trade-policy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3093\/revisions\/3109"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.businessupturn.com\/trade-policy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3095"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.businessupturn.com\/trade-policy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3093"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.businessupturn.com\/trade-policy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3093"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.businessupturn.com\/trade-policy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3093"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}