The fact that the last nuclear weapon control treaty in the history between the United States and Russia has expired is a major milestone in world security. The world has not experienced the absence of legal restrictions on the quantities of nuclear missiles and warheads possessed by the two largest nuclear powers in the world in over half a century. This framework has ended leaving the international system to the worries of the analysts that the world system is entering into a phase of strategic instability once again.
The Treaty which lapsed on Thursday limited the number of American and Russian nuclear weapons and offered checks and balances of transparency and verification. It has lapsed and therefore the two countries are now at liberty to increase their nuclear forces without necessitating formal legal requirements. The short-term balance of power stays the same, but, as the experts note, the lack of arms control systems causes uncertainty and threat of escalation in the long term.
A very serious situation, said Vasily Kashin, of Moscow, Higher School of Economics, research fellow. As Kashin puts it, the termination of the treaty may cause serious changes in the nuclear policy, especially in the United States, and make the future rather unpredictable. He observed that the possibility of a new nuclear arms race appears true in the next few years.
The relationship between Washington and Moscow dates back to the Cold War in arms control agreements. In 1972, the US President Richard Nixon and the Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev signed the first significant agreement on nuclear armaments. The aim of that accord was to decelerate arm race and minimize chances of misinterpretations which would result in disastrous war. Both parties had understood that they had to restrain themselves even at the time when competition was fierce.
The Strategic Arms Reduction treaty or START was signed in 1991 by the US and Soviet President George H W Bush and Mikhail Gorbachev, respectively as the Soviet Union was falling apart. This was more than the deals that used to be made since the two parties not only had to cut down on their nuclear weapons but also to limit their increase. It also established regimes of inspection where each nation was permitted to inspect the performance of the other country thereby setting the stage of decades of cooperation in arms control.
New START, the last agreement was signed in 2010 by the US President Barack Obama and the Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. It restricted the number of strategic nuclear warheads deployed by each side to 1,550 as well as a capped maximum number of 700 delivery systems, including missiles and bombers. These figures were still large destructive potential, but a limit that was created under the treaty helped stabilize the situation between the two countries.
In 2021, New START was renewed by five years, however, the conditions of this renewal could only be renewed once. By the time that the treaty expires this week, there was no substitute in place and there had been no negotiation of a successor agreement in place. Consequently, the legal system of the US and Russian nuclear forces was terminated.
This was largely due to worsening of relations between Moscow and Washington due to the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 by Russia. Diplomatic relations deteriorated such that there never came a time when talks on renewing or replacing the treaty would be made. Though Russian President Vladimir Putin offered an informal extension of the agreement by 12 months, the US President Donald Trump has not agreed to rollover it.
There is a mixed opinion regarding that decision in America. Other commentators observe that the decision to deny an extension is dangerous and the US may lose in a free arms race. Other people think that terminating the treaty would provide more latitude to Washington especially when it comes to dealing with the emerging nuclear strengths of other nations.
China is also a major element in the US debate regarding arms control. President Trump has shown interest in having a new trilateral agreement that will comprise of Beijing and Washington and Moscow. Nonetheless, analysts who have been in the field of arms negotiation warn that such an agreement would be very hard to win.
A former Soviet and Russian negotiator in arms control, Nikolai Sokov, stated that no trilateral negotiations have ever been put into practice. He informed that Russia and China have already indicated that they are not willing to have such a format. Sokov reported that Moscow and Beijing have suggested that arms control negotiations may occur between the United States and Russia on a bilateral basis or is possible on a multilateral basis which would also include other countries like the United Kingdom and France.
The international system is going into uncharted territory with no consensus formed. Although, the short term strategic equilibrium between the United States and Russia is not likely to change drastically, the lack of official restraints and verification systems indicates the extent of the deterioration of the relationship between the two nations.
It is yet to be determined whether there will be any long-term implications. Historically, arms control treaties were used as the means of building communication lines and decreasing mistrust, as well as limiting weapons. Their demise could make the situation more unclear and more prone to error in the long run.
With the world adapting to this new reality, the conclusion of nuclear weapons control between Washington and Moscow shows how bad bilateral relations have become. It is uncertain whether new frameworks are going to arise in the future, however, at present, the global security environment has entered the phase of fewer rules and an increased level of uncertainty.