Russia has indicated that it will maintain the information on its shipments of crude oil to India secret. This action shows the growing strategies of the international energy trade in the context of ever-growing levels of geopolitical tensions. Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, indicated that Moscow was not going to provide any quantitative data of its oil exports, and this kind of openness would open the trade streams to political maneuvering and disruptions by what he referred to as the ill-wishers.
The move is timed especially well in the world energy market, which is especially sensitive at the time. The strategic Strait of Hormuz is one of the most significant oil chokepoints in the world that has been interrupted partially due to the retaliatory measures taken by Iran against the military attacks associated with the United States and Israel. The strait is normally involved in transporting approximately a fifth of the oil supply in the world and its instability has caused shocks in the markets and heightened concerns in the minds of the major energy importing countries. In the case of India that imports almost 88percent of its demand of crude oil, any interference in shipments through the Gulf is a significant strategic challenge. The nation uses approximately 5.5M barrels per day, with a significant part of imports in the past passing through the Strait of Hormuz by Gulf producers. As there is a question mark around those routes, other suppliers have gained significance.
Peskov has made those comments in the wake of remarks by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who verified that Washington had permitted a 30-day waiver to permit Indian refiners to buy Russian crude. The ruling represents a shift that is pragmatic in the policy of the U.S. In the past, Washington had also called on New Delhi to limit the imports of Russian oil after sanctions against the Russian invasion of Ukraine. India temporarily reduced purchasing at the time due to diplomatic pressure. Nonetheless, the instability that is present in West Asia today has compelled the policy makers to rethink those restrictions. Due to the risk of losing supply and increasing prices, the stable supply of crude has become the priority of economy that is energy-starved. According to Indian media reports, Russia is capable of supplying up to 22 million barrels of crude oil to India in a week should the need arise. Peskov has declined to verify these numbers when questioned about them, restating that the Kremlin would not provide shipment data in the existing conditions.
Meanwhile, Russian state television has recently broadcast maps of multiple tankers that have travelled the Arabian Sea towards the Bay of Bengal supposedly heading to Indian refineries on the eastern coastline. This kind of broadcast has created a speculation that big amounts of Russian oil are already on its way. Russia Deputy prime minister Alexander Novak has revealed that Moscow is willing to supply more to the Asian clients especially in India and China. As Western sanctions diminished Russia’s ability to access European markets, the Asian economies have become the major target of Russian crude exports.
By February 2026, Russia was expected to contribute between 21 and 30 percent of the oil imported to India, approximated at 1.1 to 1.8 million barrels a day. This is only a minor drop off of highest output in 2025, when shipments are at times more than two million barrels per day, but Russia continues to be one of the largest suppliers of India. The other key exporters to India are the Gulf producers, which are Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates. However, during the conflict times in the area, these suppliers are at risk since they use the Strait of Hormuz as a means of transportation. Russia, conversely, has an advantage of diversification of export network comprising Baltic ports, Pacific terminals and alternative maritime routes. This supply chain maneuverability enables Moscow to divert the crude oil supplies to Asia in instances where the conventional energy routes are disrupted. To handle the Russian types of crude oil like the Urals that are rich in sulfur as compared to some of the Middle Eastern crude oil, Indian refiners have also modified their infrastructure to handle such oil. Russian supplies are especially appealing to facilities such as the huge refining complex that is run by Reliance Industries that have modernized equipment over the last few years to process these grades effectively.
The other thing that is influencing the market is the fact that the deep discounts that originally made Russian crude to be very attractive are gradually vanishing. At the time when Russian energy exports were initially subject to Western sanctions, other purchasers, like India and China, were enjoying major price discounts. Those discounts have today been reduced significantly as the global supplies are tight, and the demand is high. However, Russia still has a good presence in the Asian markets. Analysts observe that global oil trade has been radically changed by the redirection of the energy flows following the war in Ukraine. Europe was cutting imports of Russian crude severely, but most of the displaced imports were taken by Asia. In the case of India, the new state of affairs points at the fragility of the relationship between geopolitical pressures and energy security. New Delhi has always insisted that it makes its buying choices on the basis of market factors and national interests as opposed to the political affiliations.
With the unrest in West Asia still affecting the traditional supply lines, it is likely that the role of Russia as a major energy producer to India will be even more important. The non-disclosure of the export figures by the Kremlin indicates the greater truth that oil exports are not just business deals nowadays, but it is a tool in an intricate world war, the world war of markets, diplomacy and security.