It has been four years of shadow boxing, but on Friday, the gloves come off, diplomatically speaking. For the first time since the invasion started, officials from Russia, Ukraine, and the US are meeting face to face in the United Arab Emirates. No middlemen this time, no quiet back-and-forth through other countries. Just them, in the same room.
The mood was set Thursday night in Moscow. Donald Trump’s envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, sat down with Vladimir Putin for what the Kremlin called a “constructive” meeting. But the translation is pretty clear: Russia isn’t blinking. Putin’s aide, Yuri Ushakov, stated bluntly that unless the territorial issues are resolved according to the “Anchorage formula” a reference to last year’s Trump-Putin summit the war continues.
That brings us to the main obstacle in Abu Dhabi: the land. Zelensky was candid with reporters in Davos, admitting, “It’s all about the land.” Moscow is demanding that Ukraine hand over the 25% of the Donetsk region that Kyiv still controls. Zelenskyy is countering with a proposal for a mutual withdrawal to create a demilitarized economic zone. It is a massive gap to bridge in one afternoon.
You can tell how serious this is just by who showed up. These aren’t junior diplomats sent to feel things out. Ukraine brought its intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov, along with top general Andrii Hnatov. Russia sent General Igor Kostyukov, the head of the GRU. These aren’t the people who write statements for the press, they’re the ones actually running the war, making the calls, deciding what gets hit.
The backdrop to all this is grim. Zelenskyy almost skipped Davos entirely because Kyiv is currently freezing in the dark after renewed Russian strikes took out the heating grid. He has reportedly secured a verbal agreement with Trump on future U.S. security guarantees, but that is worthless without approval from Congress. As they meet in the UAE desert, the question isn’t whether they will sign a peace deal today they won’t, but whether they can agree on a single inch of the map before the winter offensive grinds on.