The global arms trade has entered a new strategic phase in which military exports are not merely commercial transactions but instruments of geopolitical power. Data compiled from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute arms transfers database shows that the global defence export market remains heavily concentrated among a handful of countries, with the United States commanding a dominant position.
Between 2021 and 2025, the United States accounted for approximately 42 percent of global arms exports, a figure that places it far ahead of every other supplier. In fact, American exports alone exceed the combined share of several of the next largest exporters. The second tier includes France with roughly ten percent of global exports, followed by Russia with seven percent, while Germany and China each hold around six percent of the global market. The numbers illustrate a deeper structural reality. Arms exports have become one of the most important tools through which states project influence, shape alliances and sustain technological leadership in defence industries.
The overwhelming dominance of the United States in global arms exports is the product of several reinforcing structural advantages. First is technological leadership. American defence companies produce some of the most advanced military platforms in the world, including stealth aircraft, missile defence systems and integrated battlefield surveillance networks. Flagship systems such as the F-35 Lightning II fighter aircraft and the Patriot missile defence system have become central to the security architecture of numerous allied states.
Second is industrial scale. The United States maintains the largest defence industrial base in the world, supported by enormous domestic military expenditure authorised by the United States Department of Defense. This vast procurement ecosystem enables American companies to produce weapons systems at volumes that competitors often struggle to match.
Third is geopolitical alliance structure. Through security partnerships such as NATO and bilateral defence agreements across Asia and the Middle East, Washington has built a global network of military cooperation that naturally channels demand toward American equipment. These three pillars together have created a powerful export ecosystem in which technological dominance reinforces diplomatic influence, while diplomatic alliances generate sustained demand for American weapons systems.
While the United States remains unrivalled, European suppliers have experienced a surge in demand in recent years. Countries such as France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom have all expanded defence exports as regional security concerns intensify.
France, now the second largest arms exporter globally, has benefited from strong international demand for its combat aircraft and naval platforms. Meanwhile Germany has overtaken China to become the fourth largest arms exporter, reflecting rising production capacity and increased European procurement. The shift has been strongly influenced by the security environment created by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. European governments have accelerated military spending and modernisation programmes, which in turn has strengthened the continent’s defence manufacturing sector.
Russia remains one of the world’s major arms exporters, yet its position has been affected by geopolitical developments and shifting supply chains. Sanctions and the demands of domestic wartime production have complicated Moscow’s ability to sustain traditional export markets.
China, meanwhile, has focused on regional defence partnerships. Beijing’s weapons exports are concentrated primarily in Asia, Africa and parts of the Middle East, where Chinese systems often compete on affordability and accessibility rather than technological sophistication. This strategic positioning allows China to serve markets that are sometimes politically or financially excluded from Western defence supply networks.
One of the most significant developments in the global arms trade has been the rapid emergence of South Korea as a major supplier. South Korean defence firms have expanded aggressively into international markets by offering advanced weapons systems at competitive prices and with faster production timelines. The country’s defence industry has secured large export contracts for artillery systems, tanks and combat aircraft across Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia. Seoul has made defence exports a national strategic priority, seeking to position itself among the world’s leading military suppliers over the coming decades.
The global arms market is increasingly intertwined with diplomacy and strategic influence. Defence exports strengthen security partnerships, create long term military interoperability and deepen political alliances. Countries that supply advanced weapons systems often gain enduring strategic relationships with buyer states, as training programmes, maintenance contracts and technology transfers bind militaries together for decades. For this reason, arms exports are rarely neutral commercial transactions. They are instruments of statecraft that shape global security architectures.
Looking ahead, the structure of the global arms market is likely to remain concentrated among a small number of technologically advanced states. However, emerging exporters such as South Korea suggest that new players can still disrupt the hierarchy through innovation and competitive manufacturing.
Rising geopolitical tensions, particularly in Europe, the Middle East and the Indo Pacific region, are also likely to drive continued growth in defence procurement. In this environment, the global arms trade will remain one of the most powerful intersections of economics, technology and geopolitics. And for now, the United States stands firmly at the centre of that strategic marketplace.