Formula 1 is heading for one of its most dramatic finales in years after Max Verstappen’s victory in Qatar blew the 2025 world championship wide open. For the first time since 2010, three drivers – Lando Norris, Max Verstappen and Oscar Piastri – remain mathematically in the fight going into the season-ending Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
Norris could have wrapped things up early had he won in Lusail, but a cautious start and a strategic miscue from McLaren left him settling for P4 while Verstappen charged to a crucial win. Piastri, who had dominated much of the weekend, eventually finished second after Red Bull nailed their pit strategy.
Despite the setback, Norris still leads the standings with 408 points, 12 clear of Verstappen and 16 ahead of Piastri. That narrow advantage means the title remains firmly in his hands – but the margin for error is incredibly small.
How can Norris win the 2025 world title in Abu Dhabi?
The simplest route is clear:
If Lando Norris finishes on the podium (P1, P2 or P3), he is World Champion.
No scenario involving Verstappen or Piastri can change that.
However, things become markedly more complex if Norris slips outside the top three.
Below is the full permutation table outlining when Norris seals the title:
Championship Scenarios for Norris
| Norris’ finishing position | Verstappen must finish… | Piastri must finish… |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eliminated | Eliminated |
| 2 | Eliminated | Eliminated |
| 3 | Eliminated | Eliminated |
| 4 | 2nd or worse | Eliminated |
| 5 | 2nd or worse | Eliminated |
| 6 | 2nd or worse | 2nd or worse |
| 7 | 2nd or worse | 2nd or worse |
| 8 | 3rd or worse | 2nd or worse |
| 9 | 4th or worse | 2nd or worse |
| 10 | 4th or worse | 3rd or worse |
| 11 | 4th or worse | 3rd or worse |
What if Norris fails to finish on the podium?
This is where Verstappen’s Qatar victory becomes significant.
A win for Verstappen in Abu Dhabi – paired with Norris finishing P4 or lower – would deliver the Dutchman a stunning fifth consecutive world title. It would complete a remarkable comeback after he trailed the standings by more than 100 points earlier in the season.
Piastri is still mathematically alive, but he requires a near-perfect scenario: he must win the race, Verstappen must finish behind him, and Norris must finish outside the top six.
Final takeaway
● Norris controls his destiny: Finish on the podium and he is champion.
● Verstappen’s path: Win the race and hope Norris finishes fourth or worse.
● Piastri’s hope: Win, and pray for a Norris collapse and a Verstappen stumble.
The stage is set for a blockbuster decider under the Yas Marina lights.