With the Qatar GP complete, the 2025 Formula 1 title will now be decided in Abu Dhabi — and three drivers remain in contention:

1. Lando Norris – 408 points
2. Max Verstappen – 396 points
3. Oscar Piastri – 392 points

Norris leads the standings, but his margin is small enough that he must meet specific results to secure his first-ever F1 World Championship.

Here are all the scenarios where Lando Norris becomes World Champion in Abu Dhabi:

1. If Lando Norris finishes 3rd or higher → He is World Champion

This is the simplest and strongest scenario.

P3 gives 15 points, which guarantees that neither Verstappen nor Piastri can overtake him even if they win.

2. If Norris finishes 4th or lower → He must finish ahead of Verstappen AND Piastri

If Norris does not get a podium, then it becomes a direct points fight.

Points difference with a win (P1 = 25 pts):

  • Verstappen is 12 points behind Norris

  • Piastri is 16 points behind Norris

So, if Verstappen wins:

  • Norris must finish P2 or P3

  • Norris cannot afford to finish behind Verstappen

If Piastri wins:

  • Norris must finish P2, P3, or P4
    (depending on fastest lap variables)

3. Norris becomes champion even if he finishes outside the points — but ONLY IF Verstappen & Piastri also fail to score

For example:

  • Norris P11

  • Verstappen P11 or worse

  • Piastri P11 or worse

→ Norris wins the title because the 12–16 point lead remains intact.

This is the most unlikely scenario but remains mathematically possible.

Scenarios where Norris loses the championship

Norris loses the title if:

  • Verstappen wins and Norris finishes P4 or worse, or

  • Piastri wins and Norris finishes P5 or worse, or

  • Norris finishes behind both Verstappen and Piastri in any result-limited scenario.

Summary: How Lando Norris Becomes World Champion

  • Finish P3 or better → CHAMPION.

  • Finish P4–P5 → Must finish ahead of Verstappen & Piastri.

  • Finish outside points → Needs both rivals to also score 0.

The 2025 Abu Dhabi GP now becomes a straight shootout — and Norris controls his destiny.