Indian airlines are staring at significant revenue losses after Dubai extended restrictions on foreign carriers to one daily round trip per airline until May 31, 2026, a move that disproportionately hits Indian operators who collectively had hundreds of flights scheduled to Dubai International and Al Maktoum airports during the April-May period, and one that the Federation of Indian Airlines has now formally asked the Indian government to counter — including through reciprocal action against Dubai carriers operating in India.
The scale of the disruption is stark when the approved schedules are measured against the cap. IndiGo had an approved summer schedule of 15 daily flights from India to Dubai — under the one-flight-per-day restriction, it is limited to one. Air India and Air India Express had over 750 scheduled flights to Dubai for April to May combined, while IndiGo had 481 and SpiceJet had 61. The one-flight-per-day cap translates to approximately 30 or 31 flights per month per airline — meaning the gap between what was planned and what is permitted represents hundreds of cancelled or displaced flights and the passenger revenue that would have filled them.
Why Dubai and why now
Dubai Airports communicated the restrictions in a March 27 email seen by Reuters, stating that airlines would be limited to one daily round trip to Dubai International and Al Maktoum between April 20 and May 31 — an extension of restrictions that have been in place since the US-Iran war began on February 28. The airport authority said carriers continue to be limited to one rotation per day until capacity allows more to be facilitated, with additional slots to be allocated if capacity becomes available.
The capacity constraint at Dubai is a direct consequence of the Iran war and its disruption to regional airspace. Flights that previously transited Iranian airspace have been rerouted, significantly increasing congestion over UAE airspace as carriers from across Asia, Europe, and Africa divert through alternative corridors. Dubai International, already one of the world’s busiest airports before the war, is managing a dramatically compressed airspace environment — and the one-flight-per-day cap on foreign carriers is the mechanism through which it is allocating the constrained capacity that remains.
The discrimination complaint
The Federation of Indian Airlines, representing IndiGo, Air India, and SpiceJet, has argued in its letter to the Indian government that the restrictions unfairly exclude Dubai carriers like Emirates and flydubai from similar constraints. The complaint is straightforward — if Dubai International is genuinely capacity-constrained to the point where foreign carriers must be limited to one daily flight, that constraint should apply symmetrically to all carriers including the airport’s home carriers. If Emirates continues to operate multiple daily flights to India while Indian carriers are capped at one flight to Dubai, the restriction functions as a competitive advantage for Dubai-based airlines rather than a neutral capacity management measure.
Indian airlines have also suggested the government consider reciprocal action against Dubai carriers operating in India — a leverage point that reflects the bilateral nature of the air services relationship and India’s position as Dubai’s largest passenger source market, with 1.9 million Indian travellers having passed through Dubai International in 2025 alone.
The compounding pressures
The Dubai restrictions arrive on top of a set of existing pressures that were already straining Indian airline economics before the Iran war began. Rising aviation fuel costs — with Brent crude above $102 per barrel following the ceasefire collapse and Hormuz crisis — have significantly increased operating costs across the industry. Indian carriers are also flying longer routes to Western destinations after being banned from Pakistani airspace following the deterioration of India-Pakistan relations in 2025, adding hours and fuel burn to European and North American services.
The Gulf region accounts for a major share of Indian airline traffic — the India-Dubai corridor alone is one of the busiest international routes in the world, serving the enormous Indian diaspora in the UAE, connecting business travellers between the two countries, and acting as a hub transit point for Indian passengers connecting onward to Europe, Africa, and the Americas through Emirates and flydubai. A cap of one daily flight per Indian carrier to the world’s most connected hub is not a minor operational adjustment. It is a fundamental constraint on the revenue-generating capacity of India’s largest carriers during their peak summer travel season.
What happens next
The FIA’s letter to the Indian government puts the ball formally in New Delhi’s court. The Directorate General of Civil Aviation and the Ministry of Civil Aviation will need to decide whether to engage bilaterally with UAE aviation authorities to seek a relaxation of the cap, whether to pursue the reciprocal action the airlines have suggested, or whether to wait for the April 21 ceasefire deadline and the potential diplomatic resolution of the broader US-Iran conflict that is the root cause of the Dubai airspace congestion.
The longer the Hormuz crisis and its airspace consequences persist, the greater the revenue damage to Indian carriers who built their international growth strategies around the Gulf market. For IndiGo in particular, which had scaled its Dubai operation to 15 daily flights, the difference between 15 daily flights and 1 is not a rounding error — it is an existential constraint on its international network economics that will show up materially in its next quarterly results.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Data on scheduled flights is sourced from Reuters reporting. Business Upturn is not responsible for any decisions made based on this article.