Nuvama | Business Upturn

Tata Steel share: Nuvama sees ~5% upside, keeps hold as large capacity expansion offsets near-term margin pressure

News Desk — Fri, 12 Dec 2025 03:27:47 +0000

Nuvama Institutional Equities has maintained a ‘Hold’ rating on Tata Steel with a target price of ₹175, implying an upside of about 5% from the current market price of ₹166.40. The brokerage’s stance reflects a balance between Tata Steel’s long-term domestic growth plans and near-term pressures from softer steel prices.

In its latest note, Nuvama highlighted Tata Steel’s recently unveiled growth roadmap, under which the company could add around 10 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of steelmaking capacity in India in a phased manner by FY32. This expansion would take Tata Steel’s domestic capacity to about 37 mtpa and mark its entry into Maharashtra for crude steel production.

While the company has not yet disclosed detailed capital expenditure plans, Nuvama estimates total growth capex of ₹950–1,000 billion over the next six years. Of this, around ₹700–750 billion is expected to be deployed in India, with the remaining ₹250 billion earmarked for Europe, assuming all proposed projects move ahead as planned. The brokerage believes the expansion can largely be funded through internal accruals, and Tata Steel’s net debt is unlikely to rise meaningfully despite the scale of investment.

However, Nuvama has moderated its near-term earnings outlook amid a weaker steel price environment. It has cut its FY26E and FY27E EBITDA estimates by 5% and 3%, respectively, reflecting lower realised steel prices, even as it continues to factor in a price recovery of ₹3,000–3,500 per tonne in Q4 FY26.

Overall, Nuvama sees Tata Steel’s long-term capacity expansion strategy as structurally positive but believes near-term pricing headwinds and execution-related uncertainties warrant a cautious ‘Hold’ stance at current levels.

Disclaimer: This article is based on a brokerage report by Nuvama Institutional Equities. The views expressed are those of the brokerage and are for informational purposes only. This content does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities.

Stocks to watch on May 29: Jefferies initiates Jindal Stainless, upgrades JSW Steel, retains bullish stance on Bandhan Bank and Nuvama

News Desk — Thu, 29 May 2025 01:47:16 +0000

Jefferies has released a series of reports on Indian stocks across banking, insurance, and metals, initiating and upgrading ratings while outlining growth expectations and sector dynamics.

Jindal Stainless: Initiated with Buy, TP ₹800

Jefferies initiated coverage on Jindal Stainless (JSL) with a Buy rating and a target price of ₹800, highlighting its leadership in India’s growing stainless steel (SS) market. The brokerage noted JSL’s lower EBITDA/ton volatility and superior balance sheet versus carbon steel peers. With China’s SS conversion spreads at decade-lows, any rebound could significantly boost margins.

Jefferies expects JSL to post a 10% volume CAGR and 21% EPS CAGR, with a 17% ROE over FY25–27E. At 11x FY26E EV/EBITDA, Jefferies finds valuations reasonable, citing the ~25% global SS premium over carbon steel.

Bandhan Bank: Buy, TP ₹195

Post management interaction, Jefferies retained a Buy rating on Bandhan Bank with a TP of ₹195. While the bank is cautious on asset quality amid tighter lending caps from April, its relatively lower exposure to leveraged borrowers offers some buffer.

Jefferies projects a moderation in credit costs starting 2HFY26 and expects FY26 ROA to remain steady. Over 2–3 years, the MFI loan share may decline from ~40% to 35%, but lower credit costs and operating leverage could raise ROA to 1.8%-1.9% by FY28.

Max Financial: Buy, TP ₹1,700

Jefferies maintained a Buy on Max Financial, despite CEO Prashant Tripathy’s planned early retirement in Sep-25 and Chairman Rajiv Anand’s retirement from Aug-25. While acknowledging this as a minor setback, Jefferies expects smooth succession via internal elevation.

Sectoral tailwinds such as regulatory changes, shift to Non-Par segments, and steady business growth are likely to cushion the transition. Jefferies sees any stock correction as a potential buying opportunity.

Nuvama: Buy, TP ₹8,000

In Q4, Nuvama delivered a 30% YoY rise in revenue and 39% growth in profit, both ahead of estimates. Capital markets PBT surged 63% YoY, contributing 64% to overall PBT. However, wealth management profit growth lagged due to higher incentive-related expenses.

Net flows remained healthy at 5% of AUM, and Jefferies sees this as a key positive despite slower IB revenues (+16% YoY). It retained a Buy with a TP of ₹8,000.

Metals & Mining: Mixed stance

Jefferies is constructive on Indian steel, citing 8–10% volume CAGR for FY25–27E, aided by safeguard duties. Historical trends suggest a favorable risk-reward at current Asian conversion spreads, which are 30% below long-term averages.

Tata Steel: Retained Buy, TP ₹200
Jindal Stainless: Initiated Buy, TP ₹800
JSW Steel: Upgraded from Hold to Buy, TP raised to ₹1,200
Coal India: Retained Buy, TP ₹455
Hindalco: Downgraded to Hold, TP cut to ₹690, citing muted earnings and rising leverage

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of Jefferies and do not represent investment advice or recommendations from Business Upturn.

Havells share price: Buy, Sell or Hold? What brokerages say after Q4 earnings beat

News Desk — Wed, 23 Apr 2025 02:35:17 +0000

Havells India delivered a strong Q4FY25 performance, posting a 20.2% YoY jump in revenue to ₹6,543 crore and a 15.7% rise in net profit to ₹517 crore. Earnings per share also improved to ₹8.26 from ₹7.13 YoY. The robust performance was driven by healthy growth in Lloyd and cables & wires segments, prompting a range of reactions from brokerages — spanning from ‘Neutral’ to ‘Buy’ — depending on the outlook for margins and demand recovery.

Morgan Stanley on Havells share price (Overweight | Target Price: ₹1,942)

Morgan Stanley maintained its Overweight stance, noting a 4% revenue beat led by Lloyd’s 40% YoY growth and a 20% YoY rise in emerging categories. EBIT margins outperformed expectations across all segments, especially in ECD, Lloyd, and others, while Switchgear, Lighting & Cables saw some decline. Revenue (ex-Lloyd) grew 14% YoY, with EBIT margins (ex-Lloyd) at 13.9%, still better than the 12.8% estimate.

Nomura on Havells share price (Buy | Target Price: ₹1,873)

Nomura reiterated a Buy call, stating that Q4 margins were ahead of estimates and highlighted demand tailwinds in Cables & Wires (C&W) and Lloyd. It expects 15-16% revenue growth (ex-Lloyd) over FY26-27 driven by operating leverage. The brokerage sees current valuations at 44x FY27F EPS as attractive considering the positive outlook.

JP Morgan on Havells share price (Neutral | Target Price: ₹1,700)

JP Morgan remains Neutral, saying the margin-led Q4 beat was slightly offset by a cautious near-term demand narrative. It noted better-than-expected revenue growth in Cables (+21%) and Lloyd (+39%). EBIT margin improvements in Switchgear (+750bps q/q), ECD (+120bps y/y) and Lloyd (+340bps y/y) were significant, though management stayed non-committal on medium-term guidance.

Jefferies on Havells share price (Hold | Target Price: ₹1,800)

Jefferies maintained a Hold, pointing to strong Q4 performance driven by C&W (+21%) and Lloyd (+40%), which boosted operating leverage and PAT. However, it warned of headwinds from urban inflation and commodity volatility. The high valuation — 60x FY26e PE, 30% above the 10-year average — also prompted caution.

CLSA on Havells share price (Outperform | Target Price: ₹1,915)

CLSA sees Havells as a solid performer, rating it Outperform. Q4 revenue/EBITDA growth stood at 20%, with Lloyd and C&W leading the way. The brokerage acknowledged strong primary offtake for Lloyd but highlighted weakness in secondary sales due to a delayed summer. It cut the target multiple to 55x (from 60x) due to rising competition in C&W.

Nuvama on Havells share price (Buy | Target Price: ₹1,890)

Nuvama is bullish, citing a strong all-round beat in Q4. Revenue rose 20% YoY, exceeding estimates by 16%, led by C&W (+21%) and Lloyd (+40%). EBIT margins improved by 230bps YoY, supported by performance in Switchgear and Lloyd. That said, it noted concern over secondary RAC sales, particularly in southern India during March and April.

Disclaimer: The above views are of the brokerages and not of the publication or author. Investors are advised to consult their financial advisors before making any investment decisions.

Nuvama on IndusInd Bank: FII holding falls, potential MSCI weight increase could attract $290 million inflows

Aditya Bhagchandani — Fri, 18 Oct 2024 05:13:20 +0000

IndusInd Bank has seen a significant reduction in its Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) holdings during the second quarter, which has brought its foreign headroom close to a critical threshold, according to a report from Nuvama.

The FII holding in IndusInd Bank has dropped to 55.53%. This reduction has left the bank’s foreign room—essentially the gap available for further foreign investment—just below the critical 25% threshold, currently standing at 24.96%.

The report indicates that if FII holding drops by just 0.03 basis points, the foreign headroom will exceed 25%, leading to a potential doubling of the bank’s weight in the MSCI index. This could attract significant inflows, with estimates suggesting an amount close to $290 million.

This development follows a period of FII sell-offs, which has opened the door for a possible reweighting of the bank in key global indices. A reweighting could signal increased foreign investment and positive sentiment towards the stock. However, the situation remains contingent on further changes in FII holdings.

This increase in foreign headroom and potential MSCI reweighting presents a pivotal moment for IndusInd Bank and its investors

Nuvama sees $100 million opportunity for Pidilite in new CollTech partnership

Aditya Bhagchandani — Fri, 06 Sep 2024 09:33:15 +0000

Pidilite Industries has announced a new partnership with CollTech Group, securing an exclusive distribution agreement. This collaboration is set to open doors for Pidilite in the high-performance adhesives market, especially within the growing electronics and electric vehicle (EV) sectors.

The partnership will allow Pidilite to distribute CollTech’s range of products across India. CollTech is known for its adhesives and thermal management solutions, which are essential in industries like electronics and EV manufacturing.

According to Nuvama, this deal presents a potential USD 100 million opportunity for Pidilite in the long term.

Pidilite has previously expressed its ambitions to become a significant player in these markets, and this agreement is seen as a key step in that direction. The company’s shares saw a slight rise, trading 0.39% higher at ₹3,221.60 on the NSE.

Lower crude oil prices have also been a positive factor, helping protect Pidilite’s margins, which further strengthens the company’s position for future growth in this sector.