Global crude oil prices surged above $105 per barrel on April 25, driven by persistent uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz amid stalled US-Iran peace talks and renewed regional tensions. Brent crude settled at $105.33 per barrel, marking a modest daily gain of 0.3% after volatile trading, while WTI closed at $94.40 per barrel.

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint handling one-fifth of global oil supply, remains partially disrupted following Iran’s recent naval actions, including footage of commandos boarding a cargo ship. Traders weighed supply fears against potential diplomatic breakthroughs, resulting in a weekly surge of 16% for Brent and 13% for WTI. Regional variants like the Indian basket reached $108.55, with Alaska North Slope up 7.4%.

Oil markets exhibited sharp swings on Friday, with intra-day volatility reflecting stalled progress in Pakistan-hosted talks aimed at extending the fragile ceasefire. Citi analysts noted risks of protracted disruptions could push prices toward $110 per barrel in Q2 2026 if negotiations fail, potentially leading to losses of 1.3 billion barrels. Iran’s rhetoric on war-ending conditions matched US de-escalation efforts by President Trump, yet tanker flows from GCC producers remain limited.

The 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis has propelled Brent past $100 for the first time in years, with peaks hitting $126 earlier. Emergency stockpiles and bypass pipelines mitigate immediate shocks, but prolonged closure threatens global economic fallout. Weekly gains underscore supply-side dominance over diplomatic optimism.

Market participants monitor upcoming US-Iran developments closely, as Brent hovered around $105.7 in recent sessions amid a five-day rally. The waterway’s status continues clouding medium- and long-term outlooks, with investors bracing for escalation scenarios.

CitiForecast | Business Upturn

Hormuz nightmare: What’s driving crude past $105 overnight?