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Gold prices soared to an all-time high on Friday, driven by rising trade war concerns as US President Donald Trump moved forward with tariffs on auto imports. The yellow metal surged 0.7% to $3,077 per ounce, surpassing the previous day’s record, marking its fourth consecutive weekly gain.
Trump’s 25% tariff on auto imports, alongside threats of additional levies on April 2, has intensified market uncertainty, fueling gold’s rally as a safe-haven asset. On the domestic front, MCX Gold April 4 contracts traded 0.54% higher at ₹88,865 per 10 grams around 9:30 AM IST.
Why Is Gold Surging?
Gold has gained 16% year-to-date, breaking at least 15 records in 2025. The key drivers behind this historic rally include:
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Federal Reserve’s Expected Rate Cuts – Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, boosting its demand.
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Geopolitical Tensions – Trade war risks, potential Trump policy shifts, and global conflicts have heightened demand for gold.
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Central Bank Buying – Countries are increasing gold reserves as a hedge against currency fluctuations and inflation.
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USD-INR Exchange Rate – A weakening rupee makes imported gold costlier in India, supporting domestic price increases.
Will the Bull Run Continue in FY26?
Analysts project gold will maintain its bullish momentum in FY26, supported by:
✔ $3,100 per ounce global target by FY26-end.
✔ ₹91,000 per 10 grams domestic price prediction in India.
✔ Potential Fed rate cuts, though uncertainty remains on timing.
✔ Sustained geopolitical and economic uncertainty favoring safe-haven assets.
Colin Shah, MD of Kama Jewelry, highlighted that gold surged 15.4% globally and 14% domestically in FY25, making it one of the strongest years for gold in a decade. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) alone purchased 32.63 tonnes of gold in the first half of FY25, boosting total reserves to 854.73 tonnes.
Technical Outlook & Investment Strategy
According to Riya Singh, Research Analyst at Emkay Global, gold prices could consolidate around $3,035–$2,975 per ounce in the short term, but any escalation in trade tensions or Fed rate cuts could propel prices toward $3,100–$3,150.
Additionally, ETF inflows have reversed a four-year trend, adding 154 tons in 2024, signaling renewed investor confidence in gold as a long-term hedge.
With interest rate decisions, trade tensions, and inflation trends shaping the market, gold’s bull run is expected to continue into FY26. However, a strengthening US dollar or shifts toward riskier assets could temporarily cap gains. Investors should monitor macroeconomic developments closely before making investment decisions.
