State economies witness major downfall post Diwali

Post Indian economy recovery, there has been a downfall in mid November. The fear of a second Coronavirus wave post-Diwali resulted in a slowdown in economy as revealed by Mint’s state recovery tracker.

In Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, Gujarat and West Bengal public mobility shattered down from 84% to 79% in two weeks whereas other states recorded 81% of the normal footfall at public places in November end.

Public mobility is one of the high frequency indicators in the recovery tracker. Three other indicators which serve as proxies for economic activity are electricity consumption, goods and service tax (GST) and vehicle sales, Mint explained.

The pace of economic recovery was on a halt in most large state economies. Gujarat had the worst set back in terms of mobility after Diwali. The state reached the pre-pandemic level public movement by the festival but stopped at 70% towards November end which is even worse then September. Night curfew was imposed in major cities of the state. Bihar and Uttar Pradesh are the only two states which witnessed improved mobility in the second half of November.

According to the National Load Dispatch Centre power demand was 3% higher than last year’s level. In the first half of November power demand was higher than the year-ago mark (8%) which dropped below the year-ago level mark (-1%). Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Gujarat saw sharp drops in their power demands in the second half of November.

Mint reported, around 1.8 million new vehicles were registered in November highest in seven months according to data from the road transport ministry. The deficit against year-ago period stands at (-21%).

Despite rising in COVID-19 cases in Delhi and Kerala, they recorded the best vehicle sales figure in comparison to last year. Kerala recorded just 3% and Delhi 4% of decline whereas Gujarat and Rajasthan stands at 43% and 29% respectively when compared to year-ago levels. Punjab, Haryana, Bihar and Odisha registered 22% fewer vehicle registrations than November 2019.

As per Mint, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka and Kerala GST collections fell below last year’s level in November. Maharashtra collected 6% less and Kerala 7% than year ago standards. Delhi’s collection also remained low whereas Andhra Pradesh (12%), Gujarat (11%), Tamil Nadu (10%) experienced sharp improvements in GST collections.

According to district wise analysis by Google data people are staying home once again.

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