The Indian economy is set to become the third largest in the world behind China and the US by 2050 and fourth largest economy behind the US, China, Japan by 2030, a report published in medical journal, Lancet estimated.
Taking 2017 as the base year when India was the seventh largest economy, Lancet said India will overtake Japan in 2050 to attain the third global ranking. India is currently the fifth largest economy in the world.
The Lancet study stated that there would be huge declines in working age population in China and India. “By 2100, India was forecasted to still have the largest working-age population in the world, followed by Nigeria, China, and the USA. In our reference scenario, despite fertility rates lower than the replacement level, immigration sustained the US workforce”.
“A sustained TFR (total fertility rate) lower than the replacement level in many countries, including China and India, would have economic, social, environmental, and geopolitical consequences. Policy options to adapt to continued low fertility, while sustaining and enhancing female reproductive health, will be crucial in the years to come,” it reported.
The Modi led government aims to touch the mark of $5 trillion by 2025.