According to SBI research report-Ecowrap, India’s GDP is likely to grow more than 9.5% in the fiscal year 2021-22. The economy has grown at 8.4 percent in the second quarter of the current fiscal, as per the National Statistical Office. In October’s monetary policy review, the RBI had retained its projection for real GDP growth at 9.5% in 2021-22, consisting of 7.9% in Q2; 6.8% in Q3; and 6.1% in Q4 of 2021-22.
According to the research report, it is believed that the real GDP growth might now go higher than the RBI’s estimate of 9.5%, assuming the RBI growth numbers for Q3 and Q4 to be stable. The GDP grew by 8.4% in Q2 FY22 with the growth in mining and quarrying, public administration, defence, and other services.
In H1 FY21, the country had a real GDP loss of Rs 11.4 lakh crore due to complete lockdown in April-May and partial lockdown in June-September due to COVID-19. But the situation has improved in FY22, and in H1 FY22 the real gain was around Rs 8.2 lakh crore.
Trade, hotels, communication, transport, and broadcasting services are still immensely affected. The economy is still operating at 95.6% of the pre-pandemic level but this might take a year more to recover. With around Rs 8.6 lakh crore investment announcements made so far in the last seven months of FY22, it seems quite encouraging from the future perspective.