India’s GDP expected to grow by 8.1% during the second quarter in FY22: SBI Report

In the first quarter of FY 22, the economy expanded by 20.1 per cent. For fiscal 2022, RBI has rated real GDP growth at 9.5 per cent — 7.9 per cent in Q2, 6.8 per cent in Q3 and 6.1 per cent in Q4.

The country’s GDP growth is expected to be about 8.1 per cent in the second quarter of the current financial year and the area of 9.3-9.6 per cent during fiscal 2022, according to an SBI research report. In the first quarter of FY 22, the economy expanded by 20.1 per cent. For fiscal 2022, RBI has rated real GDP growth at 9.5 per cent — 7.9 per cent in Q2, 6.8 per cent in Q3 and 6.1 per cent in Q4.

“As per SBI’s Nowcasting Model, the forecasted GDP growth for Q2 FY22 would be 8.1 per cent, with an upward bias. The full year (FY22) GDP growth is now revised upwards to 9.3-9.6 per cent from our earlier estimate of 8.5-9 per cent,” the research report, Ecowrap, said.

The predicted 8.1 per cent growth rate in Q2 FY22 is the highest growth beyond all economies, it said. The average GDP growth of 28 selected economies has decreased to 4.5 per cent in Q3 (2021) as against 12.1 per cent. Also, at an annual rate of 9.3-9.6 per cent, the country’s real GDP growth would be 1.5-1.7 per cent higher than the pre-pandemic level of FY20.

On November 19, Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared the government would revoke the three controversial farm laws. He also said that a committee would be established to settle matters, promoting zero budgeting farming, scientifically transforming the crop pattern, keeping in mind the country’s growing demands, and getting MSP (Minimum Support Price) more efficient and translucent.
The report also stated that five agricultural improvements that could serve as enablers even without these bills.

“First, instead of MSP as a price guarantee that farmers are demanding, the government could insert a quantity guarantee clause for a minimum period of five years that procurement to production percentage of crops (being currently procured) should at least be equal to last year percentage,” the report said.

It also recommended investigating transforming the MSP to Floor Price of the auction on the National Agriculture Market (eNAM).

Further, the report said that efforts must proceed to establish APMC market infrastructure and establish a contract farming institution in India with the independent right to oversee price discovery in contract farming. It also recommended securing a symmetric acquisition across states.

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