As per a research published by India’s former Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian, Abhishek Anand, and Justin Sandefur at Washington-based Center for Global Development, a non-profit think tank suggests that the South Asian country’s actual COVID-19 death toll might be ten times more than the official numbers, making it India’s worst human tragedy since Partition and independence.
Three new estimates of all-cause excess mortality in India during Covid pandemic
New research by @abhishekecon @JustinSandefur & me
The @cgdev working paper: https://t.co/kq5XIJbwI5@IndianExpress op-ed: https://t.co/6yJCxViwJD 1/
— Arvind Subramanian (@arvindsubraman) July 20, 2021
The report added, “What is tragically clear is that too many people, in the millions rather than hundreds of thousands, may have died.”
It estimated excess deaths i.e. the gap between those recorded and those that would have been expected to be 3 million (30 lakhs) to 4.7 million (47 lakhs) between January 2020 and June 2021.
Moreover, three calculation methods were adopted for the preparation of this report,
(i) data from the civil registration system responsible for recording births and deaths in seven states
(ii) blood tests showing the prevalence of coronavirus in the country alongside global COVID-19 death rates
(iii) an economic survey of around 900,000 people conducted thrice a year
However, researchers have noted that each method had its own weakness, for instance, the economic survey leaving out the causes of deaths. Instead, they chose a more accurate and reliable method, where the researchers looked at deaths from all causes while comparing that data to previous years’ mortality.
Dr. Jacob John, who studies viruses at the Christian Medical College in Vellore stated, “This analysis reiterates the observations of other fearless investigative journalists that have highlighted the massive undercounting of deaths.”
Various media outlets have reported about the undercounting of COVID-19 fatalities during the second wave of the pandemic.