According to a study, it claims that the 3rd wave of Covid-19 can be unlikely to be severe compared to the 2nd wave given the current spread of COVID-19 virus infections which have already taken place in the country.
Considering the mathematical modelling analysis which is published in the IJMR, Indian Journal of Medical Research, if we experience a third wave of the coronavirus then it would be substantially mitigated as the expansion of vaccination already is into process.
40% of the population has received both their doses of vaccination within 3 months after the second wave started. and the future effect of the vaccination is going to reduce the risk and severity factor by up to 60%. The studies and research show that the vaccination could substantially reduce the burden we will experience if the 3rd wave arises.
Sandip Mandal, Samiran Panda and Balram Bhargava have authored the “Plausibility of third wave of COVID 19 in India: A mathematical modelling analysis” from the Indian Council of Medical Research or commonly known as ICMR and also Nimalan Arinaminpathy who is in the Department of Infectious Diseases Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, UK.
After using a compart mental model of SARS COV2 transmission, approximately 4 potential mechanisms warning immunity re stores previously exposed individuals to the susceptible state. Emergence of a new variant which is more transmissible than the previous version is circulating strains and release of current lockdowns avoiding fresh opportunities for new transmission for the third wave are examined.
studies also show that even if there are different variants of this virus, the effect would be less harmful compared to which was experienced in wave 1 and 2. The study also states that preparedness for any potential future waves would help us ease all the process and benefit us and decrease the death toll.