Nuvama has initiated a Buy call on JSW Infrastructure (JSWIL), part of India’s leading conglomerate JSW Group (market cap USD 53 billion), projecting a 22% upside in the stock price. JSWIL, the second-largest private port company in India, has demonstrated a 25% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in volume over FY19–24. The company is poised for sustained long-term growth, driven by favorable macroeconomic conditions and a strategic plan to quadruple its capacity over the next 25 years. This growth is supported by both organic cargo growth, particularly from JSW Steel, and inorganic expansion in the ports and logistics sectors.
Nuvama forecasts that JSWIL will achieve revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGRs of 19%, 16%, and 15% respectively over FY24–27. The stock is valued at 25 times the estimated FY28 EV/EBITDA, discounted back to December 2025, resulting in a target price (TP) of INR 390. However, potential delays in the commissioning of new projects by JSWIL or JSW Steel pose a key risk to these projections.
JSWIL has grown significantly since its inception, expanding from a single port in 2004 to a portfolio of over ten ports and terminals domestically and overseas. It currently operates with a capacity of 170 million metric tonnes per annum (mtpa), making it the second-largest port operator in India, trailing only Adani Ports. The volume of Indian ports, both public and private, has increased at a 4% CAGR to 1,539 mtpa in FY19–24, and is expected to grow at approximately 6% CAGR from FY24 to FY30. The Government of India aims to quadruple capacity by 2047 and improve efficiency by privatizing terminals at major ports, which represent about 20% of India’s installed capacity.
Despite strong backing from the JSW Group, which contributed 60% of JSWIL’s volumes in FY24, the company has achieved a remarkable 68% CAGR in third-party cargo, increasing its share from 6% in FY19 to 40% in FY24. With JSW Steel’s ongoing capital expenditure plans, it is anticipated that the group will continue to contribute 50–55% of JSWIL’s volumes in the long term.
JSWIL has ambitious plans to transform from a port operator to a comprehensive logistics utility company. It aims to reach a capacity of 400 mtpa by FY30, reflecting a 16% CAGR over FY24–30. The company is also enhancing its value chain from port to customer gate through acquisitions such as a CTO license and Navkar Corp. This strategy taps into a vast, fragmented market estimated at INR 19 trillion, dominated by unorganized and regional players, and could potentially add 5–10% to JSWIL’s long-term revenue and EBITDA.
The company’s strong balance sheet and high promoter shareholding position it well to capitalize on these opportunities. However, the promoter shareholding must be diluted by September 2026 to meet regulatory norms.
JSWIL has delivered impressive financial performance, with a revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 28%, 26%, and 34% over FY19–24. Nuvama’s forecasted CAGRs of 19%, 16%, and 15% for revenue, EBITDA, and PAT over FY24–27 underpin its Buy recommendation, with the current market price offering a 19% CAGR over the next three years. The target price of INR 390 reflects a significant upside potential from current levels, despite the risk of delays in new project commissioning.
