Morgan Stanley cautious on Tata Motors, maintains equal-weight rating amid JLR growth in the US and China concerns

Morgan Stanley maintained an ‘Equal-Weight’ rating on Tata Motors with a target price of Rs 853, highlighting mixed signals from the company’s performance, particularly from its Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) division. Land Rover’s US retail sales grew 70% YoY in January 2025 to 10.9k units, although this marked a 10% MoM decline, indicating some seasonal softness.

Land Rover’s incentives grew 73% YoY but fell 13% MoM, in line with seasonal trends. The high-margin model mix remained stable at 78%, offering support to profitability. However, Jaguar sales fell 14% YoY as the brand enters its phase-out stage. During its recent conference call, JLR management highlighted strong US sales but acknowledged challenges in China, which could weigh on future growth. The brokerage remains cautious, citing geopolitical uncertainties and regional demand fluctuations.