Goldman Sachs has lowered its target price on BSE to ₹4,230, maintaining a ‘Neutral’ rating, citing concerns over the impact of NSE’s expiry day change on BSE’s options market share.
Key Observations:
- Expiry day changes affecting BSE’s market share:
- In January 2025, NSE shifted its expiry day to Thursday, while BSE continued with Tuesday expiries.
- This helped BSE increase its market share in index options premium from 16% in December 2024 to 20-22% in January-February 2025.
- However, Goldman Sachs previously expected BSE’s share to rise to 30% by October 2025, assuming no expiry day change, but now sees downside risks to its earlier projections.
- Options trading is a critical revenue driver:
- 50% of BSE’s revenue comes from options trading, making the expiry change a major headwind for growth.
Despite recent share price correction, uncertainty over relative liquidity and competitive market positioning makes the outlook challenging for BSE.
