The intensity of COVID-19 third wave in India will be as severe as that of the second wave if any indication is to be hard from what other nations have reported, SBI said in its latest ‘Ecowarp’ report that details the economy’s performance amid the pandemic.
The bank called for priority vaccination of children and teens in the 12-18 age groups, who could be the next vulnerable group. If India is better prepared for a third wave, a fall in serious case rate will lead to a fewer number of deaths, the State Bank of India (SBI) said in its report.
“We find that if serious cases decline from 20 per cent to 5 per cent (due to better health infrastructure and rigorous vaccination) in the third wave, then the number of deaths in the third wave could significantly reduce to 40, 000 as compared to the current deaths of more than 1.7 lakh,” SBI said in the report.
“SBI also made a downward revision of real gross domestic product (GDP) projection for fiscal 2022 to 7.9 per cent from 10.4 per cent. We impart an upward bias to this number with the fervent hope of one crore vaccinations per day beginning mid-July as per government projection,” SBI said
The rise in growth, however, could only be modest as the SBI’s analysis shows a “disproportionately larger impact on the economy time” and given that rural is not resilient as urban, any rise in demand is unlikely to make a large difference in GDP estimates for fiscal 2022.
The key sectors on which overall consumption growth depends and whose recovery is essential are trade, hotels, transport, communication, and services related to broadcasting, which supports roughly 25 crore households, SBI said.
More and more people in the second wave complained of breathlessness, which needed oxygen support. However, the supply of oxygen was severely limited due to the sudden jump in demand across cities and towns. Late, the centre started running “Oxygen Express” trains carrying tankers to states worst hit by Covid.
