In the latest update from the Monetary Policy Statement, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra announced that India’s GDP growth outlook for FY 26 has been set at 6.7%. The forecast underscores a steady growth trajectory despite global uncertainties, with risks assessed as “evenly balanced.”
Quarterly GDP Growth Projections:
- Q1 : 6.7%
- Q2 : 7%
- Q3: 6.5%
- Q4 : 6.5%
“Headline inflation, after moving above the upper tolerance band in October has since registered a sequential moderation in November and December, standing at 5.2% now going ahead. CPI inflation for the current financial year is projected at 4.8% with Q4 current quarter at 4.4%. Assuming a normal monsoon, CPI inflation for the financial year 2025-26 is projected at 4.2%, with Q1 at 4.5%, Q2 at 4%, Q3 at 3.8% and Q4 at 4.2%. The risks are evenly balanced,” said RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra .
“Manufacturing activity is expected to recover gradually in the second half of this year and beyond early corporate results for Q3 and we have more than 50% of the results now as we speak, it indicates a mild recovery in the manufacturing sector. Mining and electricity are rebounding from monsoon related disruptions in Q2 business expectations remain upbeat, as evident from the PMI manufacturing future output index, services sector activity continues to be resilient. PMI services, however, declined from its recent peak,” said RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra.
The revised projections signal resilience in the Indian economy, supported by strong domestic fundamentals, including sustained infrastructure spending and improving private sector investments. Governor Malhotra highlighted that external risks, such as global trade slowdowns and financial volatility, are balanced by domestic drivers like rising consumption and technological advancements.
Disclaimer: The information provided is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Always consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
