Image credit - Al-jazeera
Armenia and Azerbaijan have reached an agreement to work towards reconciling their relations, a development that has been praised by both the European Union and the United States. The two nations have been engaged in a protracted conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, with Azerbaijan reclaiming the region from Armenian separatists in a swift offensive in September.
In a joint statement released on December 8, 2023, Armenia and Azerbaijan announced their commitment to exchanging prisoners of war and collaborating on humanitarian matters. The statement also affirmed their support for a comprehensive peace accord based on the 1991 Almaty Declaration, which recognizes Nagorno-Karabakh as an integral part of Azerbaijan.
The normalization of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan holds the potential to bring an end to the longstanding Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, thereby restoring peace and stability to the region. It could facilitate greater humanitarian cooperation, assisting refugees and displaced individuals while ensuring access to essential services. Furthermore, improved connectivity has the potential to bolster trade between the two countries and their neighbouring nations, fostering regional integration across various sectors.
Nevertheless, there are still challenges to overcome, such as unresolved border disputes, Turkey’s differing perspectives on Armenia’s role, historical grievances, and the influence of external actors. Constructive dialogue founded on mutual respect and compromise is imperative for achieving a lasting peace agreement. The European Union and the United States are staunch supporters of this process, advocating for a comprehensive resolution of all issues within the framework of the Minsk Group co-chairs.
The United Nations Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, has commended the recent agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan as a significant stride towards resolving their conflict and reinstating peace and stability in the region. The OSCE Minsk Group, co-chaired by France, Russia, and the US, has also expressed approval of the agreement, urging both parties to honour their commitments under international law. However, some experts have expressed concerns that the agreement might not sufficiently address all outstanding issues between the two nations.
The dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh originated from the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 when Armenia proclaimed its independence from Azerbaijan, a move that was not widely recognized. In 1988, officials from Karabakh declared their intention to unite with Armenia, sparking conflict between Armenians and Azerbaijanis over seven districts surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh. The initial war concluded in 1994 with a ceasefire facilitated by Russia.
In 2020, following intermittent clashes along their contested border, Azerbaijan initiated a major military campaign against Nagorno-Karabakh, backed by Turkey. Within a single day of combat, Azerbaijan had recaptured the majority of Nagorno-Karabakh, excluding some areas still controlled by Armenian forces.
The conflict concluded when Russia stepped in as a mediator, leveraging its traditional role as a regional power broker. The peace deal brokered by Moscow resulted in the deployment of approximately 2,000 Russian peacekeepers to Nagorno-Karabakh to deter further Azerbaijani advances and safeguard the Lachin corridor, which links Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia.
Despite these developments, tensions have persisted along the borders of both nations and within Nagorno-Karabakh. In April 2023 alone, there were multiple instances of Azerbaijani troops firing at Armenian villages near Tegh, leading to a mass exodus of refugees from Karabakh into Armenia.
The recent agreement is perceived as an effort by both Armenia and Azerbaijan to alleviate their mutual animosity and distrust, which has been festering for years. However, it remains uncertain whether this agreement will bring about enduring changes in their relations or if it will precipitate further violence in the future.