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Nikkei Index drops sharply amid yen strength concerns

The yen’s strength intensified as the US Federal Reserve is anticipated to announce a 0.5% rate cut at the ongoing Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. This expected reduction would narrow the interest rate differential between Japan and the US, pushing the yen to a high of 139 per dollar—its strongest level in over a year. Although the yen has recently settled in the high 140s per dollar, the threat of further appreciation remains, prompting heavy selling of export-driven stocks like Toyota. The impact of a stronger yen is feared to erode profitability for exporters, exacerbating market volatility.

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Yen hits 1-year high against dollar amid fed rate cut speculation

The yen’s appreciation reflects market expectations that the Fed will reduce rates, potentially narrowing the interest rate differential between Japan and the US. This sentiment is driven by speculation that the Fed might implement a larger-than-expected rate cut. Analysts anticipate that the Fed will ease rates for the first time in over four years, with the prevailing prediction being a standard 0.25% reduction. However, a recent report by the Wall Street Journal on September 12 heightened expectations for a more substantial 0.5% cut, double the usual amount.

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Yen weakens as U.S. rate cut expectations fade

The yen briefly weakened to approximately 143.03 yen per dollar around 4:30 p.m. on the same day. This depreciation occurred against the backdrop of a rebound in the Tokyo stock market, with the Nikkei average rising over 1,200 yen. This uptick in stock prices was fueled by gains in U.S. tech stocks, fostering a risk-on sentiment among investors, which further pressured the yen.

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Nikkei index slumps for fourth straight day as yen strengthens, export stocks hit hard

The Tokyo market was notably unsettled ahead of the August U.S. employment statistics, which are anticipated to be a key determinant for future U.S. interest rate adjustments. The ADP National Employment Report released on September 5 revealed job growth that fell short of market expectations, amplifying concerns about the upcoming data. Analysts predict that weak employment figures could prompt a stronger yen and weaken the dollar, potentially driving the Nikkei below the 36,000 yen mark early next week. Yamaguchi Masahiro, head of investment research at SMBC Trust Bank, warned of significant market reactions if the employment report disappoints.

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Japan may shift focus to yen selling amid currency volatility

Historical patterns suggest that after periods of yen-buying interventions, the BOJ has occasionally turned to yen-selling interventions to counteract excessive appreciation. Nomura, Japan’s largest brokerage, recently highlighted this possibility, noting that while it isn’t yet their primary scenario, future Ministry of Finance (MOF) interventions to curb yen strength could be on the table.

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Nikkei rallies on U.S. retail sales data, marks best week in over four years

The Nikkei closed the day at 38,062.67, marking a 3.6% increase and its second-largest daily gain of the year. The broader Topix index also saw a notable rise, finishing approximately 3% higher at 2,678.60. For the week, the Nikkei enjoyed a remarkable gain of over 8%, its strongest weekly performance since April 2020. This upturn was fueled by a combination of easing recession fears in the U.S., a halt in the yen’s rapid appreciation, and signs of improved economic growth in Japan.