Tokyo market slips amid U.S. rate cut speculation and Yen surge
The Nikkei 225 fell by 1.2%, closing at 32,500, while the broader Topix index dropped 0.9%, following similar trends in international markets
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The Nikkei 225 fell by 1.2%, closing at 32,500, while the broader Topix index dropped 0.9%, following similar trends in international markets
The yen’s strength intensified as the US Federal Reserve is anticipated to announce a 0.5% rate cut at the ongoing Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. This expected reduction would narrow the interest rate differential between Japan and the US, pushing the yen to a high of 139 per dollar—its strongest level in over a year. Although the yen has recently settled in the high 140s per dollar, the threat of further appreciation remains, prompting heavy selling of export-driven stocks like Toyota. The impact of a stronger yen is feared to erode profitability for exporters, exacerbating market volatility.
The yen’s appreciation reflects market expectations that the Fed will reduce rates, potentially narrowing the interest rate differential between Japan and the US. This sentiment is driven by speculation that the Fed might implement a larger-than-expected rate cut. Analysts anticipate that the Fed will ease rates for the first time in over four years, with the prevailing prediction being a standard 0.25% reduction. However, a recent report by the Wall Street Journal on September 12 heightened expectations for a more substantial 0.5% cut, double the usual amount.
The strengthening yen, which climbed to 140.645 against the U.S. dollar—the highest since December 2023—created concerns about corporate earnings for Japanese exporters.
The yen briefly weakened to approximately 143.03 yen per dollar around 4:30 p.m. on the same day. This depreciation occurred against the backdrop of a rebound in the Tokyo stock market, with the Nikkei average rising over 1,200 yen. This uptick in stock prices was fueled by gains in U.S. tech stocks, fostering a risk-on sentiment among investors, which further pressured the yen.
On Tuesday, the Nikkei 225 ended the day down by 1.2%, extending its losing streak as investors grappled with the implications of recent comments made by a BOJ official.
The yen's temporary rise to the 140 yen range against the dollar exacerbated the sell-off, particularly impacting export stocks. The market was further pressured by perceptions from a U.S. presidential debate, where Democratic candidate Kamala Harris was viewed as having an edge over Republican incumbent Donald Trump. The speculation that Trump might lose, potentially affecting his promise of lower corporate tax rates, fueled concerns and led to increased selling by overseas speculators.
The Tokyo market was notably unsettled ahead of the August U.S. employment statistics, which are anticipated to be a key determinant for future U.S. interest rate adjustments. The ADP National Employment Report released on September 5 revealed job growth that fell short of market expectations, amplifying concerns about the upcoming data. Analysts predict that weak employment figures could prompt a stronger yen and weaken the dollar, potentially driving the Nikkei below the 36,000 yen mark early next week. Yamaguchi Masahiro, head of investment research at SMBC Trust Bank, warned of significant market reactions if the employment report disappoints.
Under the new rules, the price limits for these products will be expanded by up to 400 yen on the upper side for specific ETFs, while maintaining the lower price limits as previously set.
The Nikkei Stock Average and the Tokyo Stock Price Index (TOPIX) both recorded their largest declines since August 5, a day marked by significant global market volatility. This latest selloff was precipitated by the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) report on August’s manufacturing activity, which revealed a contraction for the fifth consecutive month, falling short of market expectations. Particularly hard-hit were technology stocks in the U.S., including Nvidia, which saw its shares plummet, erasing $278.9 billion in market value—an unprecedented drop for a single U.S. stock.
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