The Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO) has unveiled a state-of-the-art 70-ton canisterized missile system, propelling the defence community and enthusiasts into a realm of speculation. The burning question that captivates minds is whether this cutting-edge launcher is destined for the current Agni-V Mk-2 or the much-anticipated Agni-VI—an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) on the horizon, poised to redefine India’s strategic landscape.
The introduction of a canisterized missile system, characterised by the storage and launch of missiles from sealed containers, has ignited a cascade of discussions among diverse sources. Keen-eyed observers are now embarking on a journey of intelligent conjecture, aiming to unravel the mysteries enveloping this advanced launcher.
The Agni-V Mk-2, heralded as a refined and lighter rendition of its predecessor, the Agni-V ICBM, stands distinguished for its modifications geared towards extending its reach to an impressive 8,000 km. This, however, comes with a trade-off—a reduction in payload to 40-45 tonnes, a significant departure from the initial 50-55 ton configuration. In the wake of this transformative evolution, a logical deduction takes shape: the 70-ton launcher is seemingly tailor-made for a missile surpassing the weight threshold of 60-65 tons.
This deduction, akin to peeling back the layers of a strategic puzzle, heightens the prospect of its alignment with the Agni-VI ICBM. The Agni-VI, a heralded weapon system, boasts a projected global reach spanning 10,000-12,000 km—an astronomical leap in India’s strategic capabilities, poised to leave an indelible mark on the global stage.
The pressing question on the necessity of India possessing an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) with an ultimate range exceeding 10,000 kilometres looms large on the strategic horizon.
In recent months, interest in the Agni 6 missile has skyrocketed, fueled by revelations that a Defense Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) scientist, ensnared in a honey trap, had leaked critical details about the Agni 6 missile launcher to Pakistani counterparts. The intrigue heightened with the release of a striking image by DRDO, showcasing the missile at a Defence Expo in Chennai.
The debate over the effectiveness and urgency of acquiring an ICBM boasting a range of at least 10,000 kilometres has become a battleground of ideas. Many experts contend that India’s current security landscape does not warrant such an extensive range, arguing that existing missile capabilities are more than adequate to effectively target its most distant potential adversary, China. Yet, the persistent pursuit of the Agni VI missile, rumoured to exceed the 10,000-kilometre range, injects a dose of security and geopolitical complexity into the discourse.
Publicly available information reveals that in 2011, former Indian Air Force Chief of Air Staff, Pradeep Vasant Naik, and Chairman of the Chiefs of Staff Committee, Pradeep Vasant Naik, put forth a compelling case for India to broaden its nuclear capabilities far beyond immediate concerns. The touted extended range of the Agni-VI missile positions India to bring at least four key world capitals within striking distance, a development that reverberates through the spheres of security and geopolitics.
According to open sources, retired General Deependra Singh Hooda, who formerly served as the Army Commander of the Northern Command, emphasises the imperative to modernise India’s missile arsenal in response to the evolving capabilities of China. Gen. Hooda suggests that, given China’s advancements, it would be prudent for India to consider developing an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) with a range of 10,000 kilometres or more. He underscores the importance of staying proactive in enhancing the country’s defence capabilities, especially in the face of potential threats.
On the global stage, despite India’s nuclear developments, the United States and European countries have not officially recognized India as a nuclear power. Gen. Hooda highlights the opposition, particularly from European nations, attributing it to moral concerns rather than strategic considerations. He underscores the importance of self-reliance, emphasising that if faced with nuclear blackmail, European countries may not come to India’s rescue, necessitating a self-sufficient approach.
Retired Air Marshal Anil Khosla, the former 42nd Vice Chief of the Air Staff (VCAS), offers insights into the debate, shifting the focus from the question of necessity to one of affordability. He argues that the future of warfare lies in long-range vectors and unmanned platforms. Increasing the range of India’s missile capabilities, according to Air Marshal Khosla, is crucial for enhancing deterrence value. With both adversaries possessing long-range vectors, he sees an extended range as a strategic imperative, bolstering India’s deterrence capabilities in the evolving landscape of modern warfare.
In the ongoing discourse surrounding India’s pursuit of Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) with extended ranges, retired Major General Harsha Kakar, the former Head of the Department of Strategic Studies at the College of Defence Management, Secunderabad, shares a nuanced perspective. He emphasises that while conventional threats to India may not necessitate such an extensive range, the unpredictable nature of global geopolitics and emerging threats necessitates a forward-looking approach. Maj Gen. Kakar contends that considering India’s aspiration to be a global military player, preparing for any potential threat is imperative. He asserts that the development of an ICBM with a range exceeding 10,000 km aligns with India’s need to be proactive in shaping its defence capabilities.
Addressing the potential range of 10,000 km, Maj Gen. Kakar clarifies that while the maximum range is substantial, there is always a minimum range that falls well within the required parameters. He emphasises that the capability to develop and possess such an ICBM should not be overlooked, considering the uncertainties in the evolving geopolitical landscape.
Contrasting this viewpoint, retired Air Vice Marshal Suryakant Chintaman Chafekar, the former Senior Air and Administration Staff Officer at Maintenance Command, asserts that while India possesses ICBM technology, a range exceeding 5,000 km is presently unnecessary. He argues against the need for an ICBM with a 10,000 km range, emphasising India’s defensive posture and reluctance to engage in expansionist endeavours. A pragmatic perspective is offered, highlighting the inherent challenges of resource allocation and the potential repercussions of joining an arms race without due consideration.
The development of long-range Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) is a double-edged sword, often viewed as a means of projecting military power globally. While India asserts its goal is to enhance deterrence capabilities and protect sovereignty, global perceptions may differ. Possessing such missiles can inadvertently raise suspicions about offensive intentions, triggering concerns among other nations.
India, as a responsible member of the international community, traditionally adheres to a policy of no first use (NFU) of nuclear weapons. This policy underscores a commitment to using nuclear capabilities only in response to a nuclear attack. However, the development of ICBMs with extended ranges may invite questions about India’s dedication to this policy and its broader approach to nuclear deterrence.
Retired Air Marshal Anil Khosla highlights the anticipated international reactions, noting that countries, particularly those unfriendly to India, may accuse it of engaging in an arms race. Past instances of sanctions against India are cited as potential repercussions.
Major General Harsha Kakar sheds light on the nature of protests against India’s pursuit of such advanced missile capabilities. While acknowledging protests from countries, especially the US and European nations, Gen. Kakar emphasises that these objections have not resulted in substantial consequences. He notes that the protests are somewhat expected, considering that the development of missiles with extensive ranges places those nations under perceived threats. Even nations like Pakistan, despite lacking direct involvement, register protests, reflecting a broader pattern of international reactions.
Gen. Kakar underscores the importance of India adhering to its needs without exceeding them, expressing a desire for responsible missile development to prevent the proliferation of such capabilities globally.
In considering the targeting strategy for missiles with a 10,000km range, Gen. Kakar emphasises the comprehensive nature of this capability. The range encompasses both minimum and maximum parameters, allowing flexibility in targeting depending on geopolitical threats and expectations.
The debates and concerns surrounding India’s Need For Ultimate Range ICBM underscore the delicate balance the nation must strike between enhancing its defence capabilities and managing global perceptions and diplomatic ramifications.