Image Credit: South China Morning Post
China’s President Xi Jinping has highlighted the complex effects of the country’s shrinking population, acknowledging both the benefits and drawbacks of this demographic shift. In an excerpt from a speech to the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission, which was published in Qiushi, the Communist Party’s top theoretical journal on Friday, Xi emphasized the need for a “dialectical” view of the issue. The speech, originally given in May 2023, was shared with the public for the first time, offering insight into Xi’s stance on the country’s demographic challenges.
Xi pointed out that while a declining population could ease pressure on resources and the environment, it also brings significant economic and social challenges. The president referred to the lighter environmental burden as one of the key benefits of a smaller population. However, he also acknowledged the risks, including a shrinking labor force, reduced consumer spending, and lower investment momentum, which could ultimately hinder economic growth. He stressed that the issue must be approached with long-term strategies, avoiding hasty conclusions or decisions that could do more harm than good.
China’s population decline, driven by a plummeting birth rate, is a concern that has intensified over the past few years. Official statistics show that only 9 million births were registered in 2023, the lowest figure since records began in 1949. The country’s total population fell to 1.4 billion, marking the second consecutive year of decline, with more than 2 million fewer people. Despite government measures such as financial incentives and extended parental leave, experts argue that these policies have not addressed the root causes, including high living costs, inadequate childcare, and persistent gender inequality.
Xi also reflected on China’s rapid industrialization, noting that the country had achieved what took other developed nations over a century within just a few decades. While he acknowledged that the speed of the population transition had been faster than expected, he maintained that it was part of the broader global trend of modernization. On the topic of China’s historic birth control policies, which included the controversial one-child policy and subsequent shifts to two- and three-child policies, Xi defended their effectiveness, claiming they had successfully managed rapid population growth and supported China’s reform and opening-up.
The president urged continued reforms and innovation in population policy to ensure high-quality development. However, he warned against rushing into controversial measures that could raise public discontent or lead to unforeseen consequences.