Image Credits: Vietnam Investment Review
The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) has revised its supply forecast for natural rubber, indicating a significant global shortage that may persist until 2028. The new projection for 2024 has been lowered to 14.50 million tonnes from an earlier estimate of 14.54 million tonnes. This decline is attributed to adverse climatic conditions, specifically the transition from the El Niño phase to La Niña, along with a widespread leaf fall disease that has negatively impacted both the yield and quality of rubber latex.
Smallholder farmers in major rubber-producing nations, such as Thailand and Indonesia, are increasingly hesitant to expand their rubber plantations due to labor shortages and the appeal of cultivating more lucrative crops. ANRPC warns that the expected annual shortfall could reach between 600,000 to 800,000 tonnes.
On the demand side, projections are more optimistic. ANRPC has increased its forecast for global rubber demand this year from 15.67 million tonnes to 15.75 million tonnes. This uptick is largely driven by a recovery in consumption in China, spurred by government policies aimed at stimulating economic growth.
These dynamics have resulted in a notable surge in global rubber prices. As of August, the price of TSR20 rubber rose to $1.80 per kilogram, reflecting a 34% increase year-on-year. Meanwhile, the average export price of Vietnamese rubber has reached $1,637 per tonne, marking a 26% year-on-year rise.
This price increase is expected to enhance revenues for companies in the rubber sector, notably the Việt Nam Rubber Group. According to MB Securities, the average price for the group’s rubber is projected to reach VNĐ36.8 million per tonne in 2024, a 14% increase compared to this year. Total consumption is estimated at around 500,000 tonnes, contributing to a revenue projection of VNĐ18.35 trillion ($716.8 million), up 9% from 2023.
The rubber production segment is poised to account for 60% of the group’s total profit. Consequently, the Việt Nam Rubber Group’s consolidated profit before tax is forecast to reach VNĐ5.56 trillion, representing a remarkable 40% increase compared to 2023. With the global supply shortage, Vietnamese firms are well-positioned to capitalize on rising demand and prices in the rubber market.