Image Credits: Fortune
As the U.S. presidential race narrows down to a contest between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, the outcome will undoubtedly impact the complex and often tense relations between Turkey and Washington.
Whether a Democrat or Republican is in the White House, Ankara will confront substantial challenges in its relations with the U.S. Experts suggest that effective management of these issues will require renewed cooperation and dialogue, areas where President Joe Biden’s administration has faced criticism.
Trump’s previous tenure was marked by turbulence in Turkish-U.S. relations, highlighted by incidents such as the 2018 Pastor Brunson crisis, the YPG issue, and differing views on FETÖ. Despite these challenges, Trump was seen as more open to dialogue with Turkey compared to Biden, whose administration has been accused of sidelining critical issues such as the F-16 deal, F-35 fighter jets, and the situation in northern Syria.
Trump’s presidency was characterized by a willingness to address Turkey’s concerns about the YPG, though his promises often fell short due to internal and military pressures. If Trump returns to power, analysts like Kadir Üstün from SETA believe there could be a revitalization of strategic dialogue and crisis management, particularly regarding Syria. This potential shift is seen as a contrast to Biden’s approach, which has been criticized for lack of engagement and failure to address critical bilateral issues.
Harris, on the other hand, may maintain the Biden administration’s status quo unless advised otherwise by Türkiye-friendly officials. Although Harris’s foreign policy experience is less extensive, there is hope for a potential shift in approach. Her national security adviser, Philip Gordon, has previously advocated for easing tensions with Turkey, suggesting that her administration could explore new avenues for improving relations.
However, international relations expert Murat Aslan contends that U.S. policy towards Turkey will likely remain consistent, driven more by strategic interests than by individual presidential preferences. Aslan argues that U.S. engagement with Turkey will continue to be influenced by broader geopolitical considerations, particularly in the Middle East and the competition with regional powers.
Amidst the ongoing crisis in Gaza, where Turkey has strongly condemned Israeli actions, any potential normalization with Ankara under Trump could be complicated by conditions related to Israel. Trump’s previous actions, including sanctions and tariffs imposed during the Brunson crisis, highlight the possibility of leveraging relations with Turkey in exchange for concessions on other fronts.
As Turkey navigates this uncertain period, both Trump and Harris present distinct opportunities and challenges. While Trump’s presidency might bring a return to dialogue and potentially more stable relations, Harris’s approach remains less defined but could offer new possibilities depending on her advisers and policy shifts.