Iraq truce at risk following U.S. strike on militant base

The recent U.S. airstrike on a PMF base in Iraq has put the fragile truce with U.S.-led coalition forces at risk, sparking threats of retaliation from Iran-backed factions.

Tensions in Iraq have escalated after a U.S. airstrike targeted a Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) base in Babil province, south of Baghdad, killing at least four members of the Iran-backed Kataib Hezbollah group. The attack carried out with missiles launched from drones, has put the fate of an existing truce with U.S.-led coalition forces in jeopardy.

Haider Al Lami, a high-ranking official in the Al Nujaba Movement, a major group within the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, informed The National that a response to the attack was imminent. He stated, “The Iraqi factions will retaliate against the crimes committed by Israel and the United States, and will support the ‘Axis of Resistance’ in all their actions.” Al Lami also warned, “All Israeli locations will become targets and are within the reach of Iraqi factions’ firepower.”

The strike, which the PMF confirmed targeted its 47th Brigade, has been linked to increasing hostilities following recent attacks and high-profile assassinations in the region. The PMF’s central media unit did not immediately confirm the death toll, but Kataib Hezbollah vowed to deliberate on an “appropriate response” in consultation with other factions.

The broader context includes a longstanding truce between the Islamic Resistance in Iraq and U.S. forces, which has generally held despite occasional violence. This truce aimed to prevent escalation and allowed for negotiations over the presence of U.S. troops in Iraq. However, recent incidents, including the Tuesday night strike, have heightened fears of renewed conflict.

Maj Gen Yahya Rasool, an Iraqi military spokesperson, condemned the attack as “a heinous crime and blatant aggression,” criticizing it as a serious violation of the U.S. forces’ mission in Iraq. He warned that such actions could undermine joint security efforts against ISIS and risk dragging Iraq into further regional conflicts.

The attack on the PMF base occurred amid a broader regional escalation, with ongoing violence between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah and Hamas. This follows an Israeli strike on Beirut’s southern suburbs and a suspected Israeli attack in Tehran that killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh.

The U.S. has described the airstrike as a self-defence” operation against fighters preparing to launch drones deemed a threat to Allied forces. Around 2,500 U.S. troops remain stationed in Iraq as part of the international coalition against ISIS.

The PMF strike also comes as discussions between the Iraqi and U.S. governments continue regarding a withdrawal deal and a post-departure security arrangement. Baghdad and Iran-backed factions have increasingly pushed for the coalition’s departure, complicating the truce and security landscape.