Image credits - Brookings.edu
As Taiwan gears up for its upcoming elections on January 13, voters will not only be selecting a new president but also 113 legislators for a new parliament. For the first time since 2008, Taiwan faces the possibility of a Hung parliament, where no single party holds the majority, potentially leading to significant consequences for the self-governing territory being claimed by China.
While the presidential race has seen Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate William Lai Ching-te leading in polls, the legislative elections paint a different picture. The DPP is expected to lose its majority in the Legislative Yuan, dropping from 62 to around 46 seats. Instead, the majority is likely to take the form of collaboration between the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), a smaller party established in 2019 by former Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je.
In this scenario, the TPP is positioned to play a crucial role, not strictly aligning itself with either the KMT or the DPP but influencing decisions based on the issues at hand. This dynamic sets the stage for increased contestation in Taiwan’s parliament, particularly as cross-strait tensions with China escalate.
The significance of the Legislative Yuan lies in its role in passing bills and shaping meaningful change. Post-election, key debates on labour insurance reform and promises made during the election campaign, such as education and youth housing policies, are expected. The parliament also holds power over the president’s appointments to key institutions like the Control Yuan and the Judicial Yuan.
In the upcoming elections, a Hung parliament or a KMT majority are seen as the most likely outcomes. A Hung parliament, with the TPP wielding its balance of power, could lead to more conflicts and negotiations, potentially resulting in well-rounded policy decisions. On the other hand, a KMT majority in the legislature might intensify opposition to the DPP, particularly if the presidency and legislature end up being held by opposing parties.
A Hung parliament or a KMT majority in Taiwan could also lead to legislative gridlock, impacting the passage of key laws and potentially affecting the territory’s ability to address crucial issues amid rising cross-strait tensions between China and Taiwan. This political landscape is crucial for Taiwan’s future, given its delicate relations with China.