Image Credits : N Y Times
As Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) prepares for its presidential election on 27 September 2024, uncertainty looms over the new prime minister’s attendance at next month’s ASEAN summits. The summits, scheduled from 6 to 11 October, coincide with crucial domestic political developments, raising questions about Japan’s representation at these critical international meetings.
Historically, Japan has prioritised its relations with ASEAN, with the prime minister consistently attending these summits. However, the prospect of a snap election in Japan—potentially dissolving the Lower House as early as 9 October—poses a scheduling conflict. The LDP is reportedly considering a snap election, which may shift political focus away from international diplomacy towards domestic campaigning.
China, which has been expanding its influence across Southeast Asia, stands to benefit if Japan’s new leadership fails to attend the summits. ASEAN, a key regional bloc, includes countries that are divided on their stance toward China. Some, like Vietnam and the Philippines, have territorial disputes with Beijing, while others, including Cambodia and Laos, rely heavily on Chinese economic support. This divide provides an opening for China to strengthen ties with ASEAN, potentially tipping the regional balance of power further in its favour.
If Japan’s prime minister does not attend, China’s diplomatic influence at the ASEAN meetings could grow, as Beijing seeks to expand its economic and strategic footprint. Japan’s absence might weaken its efforts to counterbalance China’s rise in the region, particularly in areas of maritime security and trade. Japan’s foreign ministry acknowledges the importance of the summits, but the domestic political agenda could take precedence, leaving Japan’s role in ASEAN diplomacy temporarily diminished.