China’s strategic emphasis on dominating water resources goes beyond the South China Sea, drawing global scrutiny. While its gradual expansion in contested waters persists, a subtler yet noteworthy development unfolds along the rivers originating from Tibet—an abundant region firmly under Chinese control.
The broader Chinese strategy to secure natural resources has led to a global presence, particularly in Africa and Latin America. Now, freshwater has become a new focal point for China, recognizing its vital role in sustaining life and supporting economies in Asia, where growing shortages threaten the region’s future.
The stability and security of Asia rely heavily on China’s commitment to rules-based cooperation. Key concerns include activities that could turn internationally shared river resources into tools of Chinese political influence. These activities range from constructing large dams on international rivers within Chinese-controlled territory to withholding or delaying the transfer of hydrological data to downstream neighbouring countries.
The Tibetan Plateau serves as the source of many of Asia’s major rivers, such as the Ganges, Brahmaputra, Mekong, Irrawaddy, Yangtze and many more. This plateau plays an important role in influencing climate and weather patterns across the Northern Hemisphere. Unfortunately, China has transformed this ecologically fragile plateau, occupied since 1950-1951, into a hub for mining and dam construction. Accelerated by a warming plateau, glacial recession, melting especially in the eastern Himalayas, and thawing permafrost pose significant environmental challenges.
Of greater concern to downstream countries is China’s construction of massive dams and diversion structures on international rivers originating in Tibet. This development positions China as the upstream water controller in Asia, providing Beijing with growing leverage over countries critically dependent on river flows from the Tibetan Plateau.
China has been the world leader in dam construction for a long time. It already has a little over half of the roughly 58,000 major dams on the planet. Still, its “dam rush” endures. The more its ability to wield transboundary waters as a tool of coercive diplomacy against its neighbours, the more dams it builds on international rivers.
Wielding the World’s Largest Dam against India
The Brahmaputra, a vital river for both China and India, flows from Tibet into India and Bangladesh, providing sustenance to millions of people. China’s dam construction, which involves diverting the river’s waters before they enter Indian territory, has sparked apprehensions about downstream water availability, irrigation, and overall ecological impacts.
This mega-dam would be able to generate 60 GW of electricity, thrice the capacity of the three-gorges dam. This project exemplifies China’s growing dominance as an upstream water controller in Asia. The dam’s potential to store vast amounts of water and regulate its release gives China considerable leverage over downstream countries like India. Such actions could disrupt the delicate balance of water resources, raising the spectre of water shortages and heightening tensions between the two Asian giants.
Growing Distrust
Persistent tensions and a lack of trust between China and India stem from their conflicting water and development plans, with a major source of contention being China’s undertaking of hydropower and water-diversion projects on the upper reaches of the Brahmaputra River, impacting its flow and course.
While China covers a significant portion of the river basin, contributing between 22 per cent and 30 per cent of the total basin discharge, it holds a crucial position as the upper riparian. This grants China the authority to make decisions directly influencing downstream water availability, causing concern and alarm in India.
The Siang Stream’s water turned murky and muddy in 2017 as it reached India from Tibet. This gave rise to worries that Beijing’s upstream operations may endanger the Siang in the same manner that it has contaminated its internal rivers, such as the Yellow, which is considered the birthplace of Chinese culture. The water in the formerly immaculate Siang hasn’t been completely cleansed up for nearly three years.
The same 2017 saw China break two bilateral agreements by refusing to give India hydrological data, indicating its intention to turn the sharing of information on upstream river flows into a weapon. That year, there was a military standoff between China and India on the tiny but strategically significant Doklam plateau in the Himalayas. It was reported that the purpose of the data denial was to chastise India for not attending China’s maiden Belt and Road conference. India’s early-warning flood systems were hampered by the withholding of data. Thus, the monsoon-swollen Brahmaputra overflowed its banks, causing significant damage, particularly in the Indian state of Assam, and ultimately led to avoidable fatalities.
India remains sceptical despite China’s assurances that the dam construction is solely for hydropower generation and won’t diminish the river’s flow. Efforts by New Delhi to assert prior use rights and establish mechanisms for monitoring China’s riparian activities have proven unsuccessful. Notably, there is a lack of a dedicated multilateral cooperation mechanism, with only limited institutionalized cooperation existing between the two neighbours.
The longstanding territorial dispute between China and India further complicates the situation. The Eastern Himalayas, administered by India as Arunachal Pradesh but claimed by China as South Tibet, are at the centre of competing territorial claims. This disputed region, home to over 1 million people and spanning approximately 90,000 square kilometres, has strained trust between the two nations on all matters related to their border regions, including issues of water sharing.
Choking the Mekong
The Mekong River, revered as the “mother of waters” in Laos and Thailand, faces imminent threats due to a series of Chinese-built mega-dams near the Tibetan Plateau. This vital waterway, originating in the Chinese-controlled Tibetan Plateau and traversing Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam, sustains the agriculture of Asia’s Rice Bowl, feeding 300 million people annually and hosting the world’s largest inland fishery, responsible for 25% of the global freshwater catch.
The 11 operational mega-dams possess a combined electricity-generating capacity exceeding all downriver countries’ hydropower capabilities. However, their environmental, economic, and geopolitical repercussions are significant. These dams diminish freshwater flow and nutrient-rich sediment from the Himalayas, leading to the Mekong Delta’s retreat in Vietnam. Seawater intrusion forces a shift from rice to shrimp farming, impacting farmers.
A Mekong River Commission study predicts a 40-80% decline in fish stocks by biomass due to planned Chinese mega-dams, jeopardizing the basin’s rich fish diversity. Disrupting the Mekong’s flooding cycle, essential for farmland fertilization and fish nurseries, exacerbates the environmental impact. China’s maintenance activities on the Jinghong Dam resulted in destructive floods in Thailand and Laos, damaging crops and livelihoods.
China’s continuous dam-building, driven by national pride and increasing leverage, poses risks. Droughts give China control over downstream countries, as seen in its 2016 release of “emergency water flows.” Downstream dependence on China’s goodwill could potentially lead to water weaponization.
While China is a major dam-builder, Laos, with China’s financing, completes projects like the Xayaburi Dam, impacting downstream flows and exacerbating drought in Thailand. China’s significant role in financing and building Laos’ dams and completing projects in Cambodia underscores its influence.
Conclusion
Dams typically create winners upstream and losers downstream, with the Mekong region experiencing a preponderance of short-term losers. Urgent action is required, emphasizing Mekong Basin-wide collaboration to protect rights, fulfil obligations to people and neighbours, and avert environmental catastrophe. Ending unilateral dam construction is pivotal to embracing sustainable practices for the collective benefit of the nations involved.
The absence of a robust cooperation mechanism exacerbates the challenges, necessitating diplomatic efforts to address the multifaceted issues arising from the contested water and territorial domains. Bridging the trust deficit and establishing effective communication channels is imperative for promoting stability and cooperation between China and India in managing shared water resources and resolving broader geopolitical disputes.
For peace and security in the region, China must adopt a cooperative approach based on established rules. Addressing the environmental impact of its activities and ensuring transparent sharing of hydrological data are crucial steps towards fostering trust and sustainable management of shared water resources in Asia.