Image Credits - Reuters
Japan, America’s steadfast ally in the Asian geopolitical landscape, is sounding a cautionary note to Donald Trump, the prominent figure in the upcoming U.S. presidential race. The message emanating from Tokyo is clear; tread carefully in forging any agreements with China that might jeopardize the hard-won collaborative efforts to rein in Beijing and jeopardize the precarious peace in the region.
As the 77-year-old Trump secures victories in the Republican primaries in states like Iowa and New Hampshire, emerging as a front-runner in some polls for the November presidential election, Japan is intensifying its efforts to communicate its concerns. This outreach, largely undisclosed until now, is revealed through interviews with six Japanese officials.
The diplomatic endeavours come into focus as Prime Minister Fumio Kishida prepares for a significant state visit to the United States in April, an invitation extended by President Joe Biden. The initiatives involve dispatching a senior ruling-party figure to seek a meeting with Trump and engaging Japanese diplomats with think tanks and former U.S. officials who share alignment with Trump, as disclosed by three of the officials.
At the core of Tokyo’s apprehension lies the worry that a potential return of Trump to power might lead to trade or security deals with China, disrupting recent collaborative efforts by the Group of Seven (G7) wealthy nations to counterbalance China’s influence. The six officials, speaking anonymously due to the sensitivity of the issue, express concern that Trump’s unpredictable approach could undermine multilateral cooperation efforts and alter the delicate balance achieved through collective actions.
While Trump has not explicitly mentioned any prospective deal with China during his 2024 nomination campaign, Japanese officials base their apprehensions on his past public comments and actions during his 2017-2021 term. Trump’s previous trade agreement with Beijing in 2019, which later expired, forms part of the backdrop that heightens Tokyo’s concerns.
During his previous term, Trump demonstrated a tendency to eschew multilateral cooperation, foster relationships with authoritarian leaders like China’s Xi Jinping, and pursue a nuclear deal with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, which ultimately proved unsuccessful.
The Japanese foreign ministry officials also express trepidation that Trump may be inclined to weaken U.S. support for Taiwan in the pursuit of a deal with China. Such a move, they argue, could embolden Beijing, which has longstanding territorial claims on Taiwan and has not ruled out the possibility of using force to seize the island.
Responding to these concerns, a Trump aide informed Reuters that no recent meetings between Trump and Japanese officials had taken place. However, they refrained from providing further comments on the matter. In a July 2023 interview with Fox News, Trump strategically avoided divulging the U.S. stance on defending Taiwan, stating that answering such a question could compromise negotiating positions.
Beyond the geopolitical chessboard, Japan is also anxious about the possibility of Trump reintroducing protectionist trade measures, such as tariffs on steel, and renewing demands for Japan to contribute more significantly to the costs of stationing U.S. forces in the country. These concerns reflect Tokyo’s unease about potential economic ramifications that may accompany shifts in U.S. policy under the Trump administration.
As the political landscape evolves and the U.S. presidential election draws nearer, Japan remains vigilant, working behind the scenes to ensure its concerns are communicated effectively and that any potential disruptions to the delicate geopolitical balance in the Asia-Pacific region are mitigated. The coming months will reveal whether Japan’s diplomatic efforts will resonate and influence the trajectory of U.S.-China relations under a potential return of Donald Trump to the presidency.